Interannual variability of the Mid-Atlantic bight cold pool

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 125(8), (2020): e2020JC016445, doi:10.1029/2020JC016445.The Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) Cold Pool is a bottom‐trapped, cold (temperature below 10°C) and fresh (practical salinity below 34) water mass that is isolated from the surface by the seasonal thermocline and is located over the midshelf and outer shelf of the MAB. The interannual variability of the Cold Pool with regard to its persistence time, volume, temperature, and seasonal along‐shelf propagation is investigated based on a long‐term (1958–2007) high‐resolution regional model of the northwest Atlantic Ocean. A Cold Pool Index is defined and computed in order to quantify the strength of the Cold Pool on the interannual timescale. Anomalous strong, weak, and normal years are categorized and compared based on the Cold Pool Index. A detailed quantitative study of the volume‐averaged heat budget of the Cold Pool region (CPR) has been examined on the interannual timescale. Results suggest that the initial temperature and abnormal warming/cooling due to advection are the primary drivers in the interannual variability of the near‐bottom CPR temperature anomaly during stratified seasons. The long persistence of temperature anomalies from winter to summer in the CPR also suggests a potential for seasonal predictability.This work was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration through Awards NOAA‐NA‐15OAR4310133 and NOAA‐NA‐13OAR4830233 and the National Science Foundation Awards OCE‐1049088, OCE‐1419584, and OCE‐0961545.2021-02-0

Numerical modelling in a multiscale ocean

Systematic improvement in ocean modelling and prediction systems over the past several decades has resulted from several concurrent factors. The first of these has been a sustained increase in computational power, as summarized in Moore\u27s Law, without which much of this recent progress would not have been possible. Despite the limits imposed by existing computer hardware, however, significant accruals in system performance over the years have been achieved through novel innovations in system software, specifically the equations used to represent the temporal evolution of the oceanic state as well as the numerical solution procedures employed to solve them. Here, we review several recent approaches to system design that extend our capability to deal accurately with the multiple time and space scales characteristic of oceanic motion. The first two are methods designed to allow flexible and affordable enhancement in spatial resolution within targeted regions, relying on either a set of nested structured grids or, alternatively, a single unstructured grid. Finally, spatial discretization of the continuous equations necessarily omits finer, subgrid-scale processes whose effects on the resolved scales of motion cannot be neglected. We conclude with a discussion of the possibility of introducing subgrid-scale parameterizations to reflect the influences of unresolved processes

Projected effects of climate change on Pseudo-nitzschia bloom dynamics in the Gulf of Maine

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Clark, S., Hubbard, K., Ralston, D., McGillicuddy, D., Stock, C., Alexander, M., & Curchitser, E. Projected effects of climate change on Pseudo-nitzschia bloom dynamics in the Gulf of Maine. Journal of Marine Systems, 230, (2022): 103737, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2022.103737.Worldwide, warming ocean temperatures have contributed to extreme harmful algal bloom events and shifts in phytoplankton species composition. In 2016 in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), an unprecedented Pseudo-nitzschia bloom led to the first domoic-acid induced shellfishery closures in the region. Potential links between climate change, warming temperatures, and the GOM Pseudo-nitzschia assemblage, however, remain unexplored. In this study, a global climate change projection previously downscaled to 7-km resolution for the Northwest Atlantic was further refined with a 1–3-km resolution simulation of the GOM to investigate the effects of climate change on HAB dynamics. A 25-year time slice of projected conditions at the end of the 21st century (2073–2097) was compared to a 25-year hindcast of contemporary ocean conditions (1994–2018) and analyzed for changes to GOM inflows, transport, and Pseudo-nitzschia australis growth potential. On average, climate change is predicted to lead to increased temperatures, decreased salinity, and increased stratification in the GOM, with the largest changes occurring in the late summer. Inflows from the Scotian Shelf are projected to increase, and alongshore transport in the Eastern Maine Coastal Current is projected to intensify. Increasing ocean temperatures will likely make P. australis growth conditions less favorable in the southern and western GOM but improve P. australis growth conditions in the eastern GOM, including a later growing season in the fall, and a longer growing season in the spring. Combined, these changes suggest that P. australis blooms in the eastern GOM could intensify in the 21st century, and that the overall Pseudo-nitzschia species assemblage might shift to warmer-adapted species such as P. plurisecta or other Pseudo-nitzschia species that may be introduced.This research was funded by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number OCE-1840381), the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Grant Number 1P01ES028938), the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health, and the Academic Programs Office of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models

We revisit the challenges and prospects for ocean circulation models following Griffies et al. (2010). Over the past decade, ocean circulation models evolved through improved understanding, numerics, spatial discretization, grid configurations, parameterizations, data assimilation, environmental monitoring, and process-level observations and modeling. Important large scale applications over the last decade are simulations of the Southern Ocean, the Meridional Overturning Circulation and its variability, and regional sea level change. Submesoscale variability is now routinely resolved in process models and permitted in a few global models, and submesoscale effects are parameterized in most global models. The scales where nonhydrostatic effects become important are beginning to be resolved in regional and process models. Coupling to sea ice, ice shelves, and high-resolution atmospheric models has stimulated new ideas and driven improvements in numerics. Observations have provided insight into turbulence and mixing around the globe and its consequences are assessed through perturbed physics models. Relatedly, parameterizations of the mixing and overturning processes in boundary layers and the ocean interior have improved. New diagnostics being used for evaluating models alongside present and novel observations are briefly referenced. The overall goal is summarizing new developments in ocean modeling, including: how new and existing observations can be used, what modeling challenges remain, and how simulations can be used to support observations.Peer reviewe

Global perspectives on observing ocean boundary current systems

Ocean boundary current systems are key components of the climate system, are home to highly productive ecosystems, and have numerous societal impacts. Establishment of a global network of boundary current observing systems is a critical part of ongoing development of the Global Ocean Observing System. The characteristics of boundary current systems are reviewed, focusing on scientific and societal motivations for sustained observing. Techniques currently used to observe boundary current systems are reviewed, followed by a census of the current state of boundary current observing systems globally. The next steps in the development of boundary current observing systems are considered, leading to several specific recommendations.Fil: Todd, Robert E.. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; Estados UnidosFil: Chavez, Francisco. Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute; Estados UnidosFil: Clayton, Sophie. Old Dominion University; Estados UnidosFil: Cravatte, Sophie E.. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement; Francia. Universite de Toulouse; FranciaFil: Goes, Marlos P.. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Graco, Michelle I.. Instituto del Mar del Peru; PerúFil: Lin, Xiaopei. Ocean University of China; ChinaFil: Sprintall, Janet. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Zilberman, Nathalie V.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Archer, Matthew. California Institute of Technology; Estados UnidosFil: Arístegui, Javier. Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria; EspañaFil: Balmaseda, Magdalena A.. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino UnidoFil: Bane, John M.. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Baringer, Molly O.. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory ; Estados UnidosFil: Barth, John A.. State University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Beal, Lisa M.. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Brandt, Peter. Geomar-Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel; AlemaniaFil: Calil, Paulo H.. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande; BrasilFil: Campos, Edmo. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Centurioni, Luca R.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Chidichimo, María Paz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Armada Argentina. Servicio de Hidrografía Naval; ArgentinaFil: Cirano, Mauro. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; BrasilFil: Cronin, Meghan F.. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Curchitser, Enrique N.. Rutgers University; Estados UnidosFil: Davis, Russ E.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Dengler, Marcus. Geomar-Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel; AlemaniaFil: DeYoung, Brad. Memorial University of Newfoundland; CanadáFil: Dong, Shenfu. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Escribano, Ruben. Universidad de Concepción; ChileFil: Fassbender, Andrea J.. Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute; Estados Unido

Global perspectives on observing ocean boundary current systems

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Todd, R. E., Chavez, F. P., Clayton, S., Cravatte, S., Goes, M., Greco, M., Ling, X., Sprintall, J., Zilberman, N., V., Archer, M., Aristegui, J., Balmaseda, M., Bane, J. M., Baringer, M. O., Barth, J. A., Beal, L. M., Brandt, P., Calil, P. H. R., Campos, E., Centurioni, L. R., Chidichimo, M. P., Cirano, M., Cronin, M. F., Curchitser, E. N., Davis, R. E., Dengler, M., deYoung, B., Dong, S., Escribano, R., Fassbender, A. J., Fawcett, S. E., Feng, M., Goni, G. J., Gray, A. R., Gutierrez, D., Hebert, D., Hummels, R., Ito, S., Krug, M., Lacan, F., Laurindo, L., Lazar, A., Lee, C. M., Lengaigne, M., Levine, N. M., Middleton, J., Montes, I., Muglia, M., Nagai, T., Palevsky, H., I., Palter, J. B., Phillips, H. E., Piola, A., Plueddemann, A. J., Qiu, B., Rodrigues, R. R., Roughan, M., Rudnick, D. L., Rykaczewski, R. R., Saraceno, M., Seim, H., Sen Gupta, A., Shannon, L., Sloyan, B. M., Sutton, A. J., Thompson, L., van der Plas, A. K., Volkov, D., Wilkin, J., Zhang, D., & Zhang, L. Global perspectives on observing ocean boundary current systems. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2010); 423, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00423.Ocean boundary current systems are key components of the climate system, are home to highly productive ecosystems, and have numerous societal impacts. Establishment of a global network of boundary current observing systems is a critical part of ongoing development of the Global Ocean Observing System. The characteristics of boundary current systems are reviewed, focusing on scientific and societal motivations for sustained observing. Techniques currently used to observe boundary current systems are reviewed, followed by a census of the current state of boundary current observing systems globally. The next steps in the development of boundary current observing systems are considered, leading to several specific recommendations.RT was supported by The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research at WHOI. FC was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. MGo was funded by NSF and NOAA/AOML. XL was funded by China’s National Key Research and Development Projects (2016YFA0601803), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41490641, 41521091, and U1606402), and the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (2017ASKJ01). JS was supported by NOAA’s Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program (Award NA15OAR4320071). DZ was partially funded by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4320063. BS was supported by IMOS and CSIRO’s Decadal Climate Forecasting Project. We gratefully acknowledge the wide range of funding sources from many nations that have enabled the observations and analyses reviewed here

Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models

We revisit the challenges and prospects for ocean circulation models following Griffies et al. (2010). Over the past decade, ocean circulation models evolved through improved understanding, numerics, spatial discretization, grid configurations, parameterizations, data assimilation, environmental monitoring, and process-level observations and modeling. Important large scale applications over the last decade are simulations of the Southern Ocean, the Meridional Overturning Circulation and its variability, and regional sea level change. Submesoscale variability is now routinely resolved in process models and permitted in a few global models, and submesoscale effects are parameterized in most global models. The scales where nonhydrostatic effects become important are beginning to be resolved in regional and process models. Coupling to sea ice, ice shelves, and high-resolution atmospheric models has stimulated new ideas and driven improvements in numerics. Observations have provided insight into turbulence and mixing around the globe and its consequences are assessed through perturbed physics models. Relatedly, parameterizations of the mixing and overturning processes in boundary layers and the ocean interior have improved. New diagnostics being used for evaluating models alongside present and novel observations are briefly referenced. The overall goal is summarizing new developments in ocean modeling, including: how new and existing observations can be used, what modeling challenges remain, and how simulations can be used to support observations